Nuclear Free World

Cue fanfare of trumpets for yet another “arms reduction treaty” between the US and Russia, it looks and sounds pretty impressive but when you get down to the detail both sides will still have around 1500 nuclear missiles each.

Obama and Medvedev are fooling no-one this is just cosmetic, nothing of substance is happening.

Clowns like these two have been signing "nuclear arms reduction treaties" for the last 30 years and yet both still "upgrade" their arsenals and both still possess enough weapons to reduce the earth to a smouldering cinder many times over.

The signing is due to take place in Prague within the next four weeks, The choice of Prague is symbolic as it was the venue for Mr Obama’s speech last year in which he outlined his ambition for “a world without nuclear weapons”.

At this rate of reduction we should be Nuclear free in about a hundred and twenty years, way to go Obama.

DurdensView Tags: Nuclear Israel, Obama, Medvedev

Iranian Bravado

President Ahmadinejad the Iranian leader has shut the door on any further negotiation with the west regarding its Nuclear programme, after appearing to soften his stance, it appears he has been emboldened by his recent election “victory”.

Though the Iranians claim their Nuclear aspirations only extend to nuclear power for energy, its long been suspected it is for a weapons programme.

The Iranian leader vowed to forge ahead with uranium enrichment, even as a deadline of the end of this month, set by Mr Obama for Iran to resume negotiations, approaches. “From our point of view, Iran’s nuclear issue is over said the Iranian President.

This latest statement from the Ahmadinejad camp will only mean that it is virtually guaranteed that Israel will attack Iranian nuclear installations, and soon, I said earlier this year that I expect an Israeli action before the end of this year I see no reason to change my mind.

DurdensView Tags: Ahmadinejad, Nuclear Israel

Russia See’s Sense

President Medvedev gave the first hint yesterday that Russia was prepared to perform a significant policy U-turn and support US moves for sanctions against Iran.

About time the Russians woke up to the fact that Iran is friendly with them because they are needed onside, once they are able to produce their own Nuclear weapons Iran will suddenly remember that the Russians are not friends of Islam, look at Afghanistan look at Chechnya.

Can the Reds really afford to have Islamic neighbours with a Nuclear capability, Iran would use their new found power to support their Muslim brothers anywhere they could, and don’t forget Iran sponsor lots of other groups with terrorist tags attached to them. Hezbollah for example, Israel would be first in the firing line.

I have said on many occasions that I cannot see Israel sitting idly by and letting the Iranians get the “Bomb” I suspect that their would be action on the Israeli part by the end of this year, certainly by the the early part of the new year on the Iranian Nuclear facilities, as they did with Iraq back in the early 80’s, that attack on Osirak in 1981 put back the Iraqi effort to get a bomb by at least 10 years.It was the world's first air strike against a nuclear plant. An undisclosed number of F-15 interceptors and F-16 fighter bombers destroyed the Osirak reactor 18 miles south of Baghdad, on the orders of Prime Minister Menachem Begin.

So the countdown begins, if Russia do vote alongside the US this Month for increased Sanctions watch the Chinese follow suit, then the green light is given for Israel to finalise plans. Our first inkling that something is about to happen will be when newspapers start hinting at secret visits by Israeli leaders to Moscow.

I believe this is an action that has to be taken for many reasons not least of all Israeli security, but also as a message to other nations, notably in the middle east that going down that path will not be tolerated, we need to be reducing Nuclear weapons around the world not starting new arms races with unstable regimes.

DurdensView Tags: Russia, US, Nuclear, Israel, China, Iraq, Iran

Ahmadinejad running out of time

President Ahmadinejad has denounced as an American government forgery a secret nuclear document unearthed by the Times, as the top general in the United States warned that military force could not be ruled out against Iran’s nuclear facilities.

It shows  how unstable the Iranian leader is when he was shown the documents he replied,  “No, I don’t want to see this kind of document,” Mr Ahmadinejad said. “These are some fabricated papers issued by the American Government.”

It’s about time The Americans stopped pussyfooting around Ahmadinejad and let him know exactly what will happen unless he reins in or better still completely stops his nuclear programme, if he is seriously looking for nuclear power for energy purposes only he would not object to the plan whereby Russia would enrich uranium for Iran.

In the past it has been reported that in the event of an attack on Iran they would Blockade the Gulf, especially the Straits of Hormuz blocking vital shipping lanes, I never understood why that was a big deal if the Iranians put ships there the Americans are more than capable of blasting them out of the water.

As for their threat of launching missiles at Israel, if attacked Israel is more than capable of looking after itself,  Ahmadinejad should know by now that the Israeli response wont be proportional it will be excessive and brutal.

I suspect that the Iranian leader is gambling that the west lack the will to attack, a certain Saddam Hussein took the same gamble and ended up swinging from a rope.

So no more talk lets deal with this issue now and put it to bed, I said some months ago that I thought there would some sort of military action by year end, I may be a little out on the timescale but an attack on their installations  looks inevitable with American Generals talking about Military action for the first time.

Personally my money is on Israel launching a strike first.

DurdensView Tags: Ahmadinejad, Israel, America, Nuclear

UN Unity

Pressure mounted on Iran yesterday to halt its nuclear programme as world leaders at the United Nations warned of the threat posed by Tehran to a global consensus on disarmament.

President Obama praised the unanimous passing of a historic UN Security Council resolution aimed at ridding the world of nuclear weapons.

Russia’s apparent shift robs Tehran of one of its most entrenched supporters. Israel, which has warned that it will attack Iran if the international community’s efforts prove ineffective, hailed the Russian shift

Indirectly this is a good result for Iran,  this may have the desired effect and the Supreme Leader, the real power in Iran may order the cessation of Nuclear enrichment, now that Russia and China are onside with the West the chances of Iran being able to continue along the enrichment path to weapons grade are practically Zero.

The Israeli’s must be overjoyed with the way the session at the UN went this week, though secretly they may have wanted to bomb the reactors and processing plants anyway just to make sure there was no chance of it secretly starting up again in the near future.

From the Iranian point of view this decision by the UN makes it imperative that regime change happens and happens soon, a new leader can ride this wave of unity amongst the five permanent members of the security council and bring the Country back into the international fold. After all as Obama is fond of saying the row is not with Iran and the Iranian people just their leaders.

DurdensView Tags: UN, Russia, China, US. Israel, Nuclear Israel

Iran - A Nuclear State?

President Ahmadinejad declared Iran a “nuclear state” today, saying that scientists had produced the first batch of highly enriched uranium, a leap towards the production of weapons-grade fuel.

I don’t believe this to be true, I don’t accept that Iran is that far down the road in enrichment capability, I smell a bluff here, Ahmadinejad is playing clever he is trying to make believe that he is capable of having the bomb in order to protect his Country from attack.

He may believe this to be a sound tactic, but recent history shows that another middle East ruler that faked having weapons capable of wiping out whole city’s ended up swinging from a rope.

I am surprised that Israel have not already attacked known Iranian nuclear sites, I suspect they are holding of because of the unrest in the Country and are hoping that regime change can be affected from within Iran.

Ahmadinejad would do well to remember that pretending to have weapons of mass destruction did not deter the American invasion of Iraq, and is not likely to deter the Israeli’s when they feel it is time.

DurdensView Tags: Ahmadinejad, Iran, Nuclear, Israel

Regime Change

Iran has the know-how to produce a nuclear bomb and may already have tested a detonation system small enough to fit into the warhead of a medium-range missile, according to confidential papers.

If this is true then by dragging its heels and not acting the West  have given Iran the time to accumulate the know how, once you learn something you cant unlearn it, so where do  we go from here.  Once you have the capability to build a  nuclear weapon the only thing holding you back is time, because of the complexity of producing the 90% grade plutonium needed to make it weapons grade.

Iran thinks it is being clever by making a couple of small concessions now like agreeing access to the newly discovered plant at Qom near Tehran, they may be able to pull the West along by faking compliance but you wont keep the Israeli’s from acting.

Once this report was made public and it may well have come from Mossad anyway, the chances of Iran’s installations being attacked increased significantly, I always suspected that they would be attacked by year end I am even more confident of this now, the US and its allies may have held of because of the fears of Iranian response but Israel cannot afford to do so.

The problem for the Middle East is that once Israel destroy the installations they will be at war and because the Iranians will keep trying to rebuild and make the bomb this will be an indefinite war, one way this can be ended or avoided to begin with in the short term is to have both the President and Supreme Leader replaced with more moderate Leaders.

Iran’s leaders believe an Israeli attack at some point is inevitable, though Israel have never attacked another Country first  so need a nuclear deterrent themselves,  The Iranian people deserve better so they should get rid of these two warmongers, Regime change is paramount.

DurdensView Tags: Nuclear, Israel, Iran, Regime Change

Iran And The Bomb

Western intelligence sources have reported that Iran has perfected the technology to create and detonate a nuclear warhead, and is merely awaiting the word from its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to produce its first bomb.

Iranian scientists have been trying to master a method of detonating a bomb known as the “multipoint initiation system” — wrapping highly enriched uranium in high explosives and then detonating it. Sources say that should Ayatollah Khamenei approve the building of a nuclear device, it would take six months to enrich enough uranium and another six months to assemble the warhead.

I had been expecting this news to be made public, having been saying for sometime that I expect a move to be made on Iran by the end of this year. A nuclear armed Iran would be to dangerous to contemplate, things have been quiet in the Western media because they were hoping that protests over the rigged Elections  may have achieved something, possibly regime change, now that is looking increasingly unlikely, it is forcing concerned nations to act.

As I write this I expect that the Israeli’s are finalising their plans to deal with this,whether it be alongside the American’s, or just with covert US backing I cant see how military action can be avoided, Israel has long since learned not to rely on anyone for their security, history has taught them some harsh lesson’s.

I suspect it is to late now for dialogue and even if Iran decided to come to the table and talk  Israel could not, one way or another this nuclear issue has to be dealt with, you cannot live with a neighbour bent on your destruction, now that they are achieving the means to bring that about.

Israel Get Go Ahead

It looks as though the US is giving the go ahead for Israel to go  bomb Iranian nuclear sites, Hilary Clinton the Secretary of state has offered the “umbrella” of defence to other Arab country’s in the region, to counter the threat from a  Nuclear Iran.

Clinton speaking from a meeting of foreign ministers in Thailand said acquiring nuclear weapons would not make Iran safer because America would work to upgrade the defence capability of their allies in that region. This provoked an angry response from the Israeli’s who see it as an acceptance on the part of the US that a Nuclear armed Iran is inevitable.

This looks like a bluff by the US who are playing  clever game, after trying for so long to get Iran to the negotiating table with limited success they have decide to let Israel of the leash, though they are going about it in a roundabout way. I said earlier that I expected action from Israel before the end of the year this statement from Clinton reinforces that belief.

Iran Isolated

World powers united in condemnation of Iran’s nuclear activities yesterday in a rare show of international consensus on the threat posed by Tehran’s continued nuclear defiance.

China and Russia joined the United States, Britain, France and Germany in backing an International Atomic Energy Agency resolution censuring Iran and ordering it to halt construction of a secret uranium enrichment plant.

This looks like the green light albeit covertly that Israel was looking for to begin preparation to destroy as much of the Iranian nuclear infrastructure as it is able to. Though Ahmadinajad is making his usual threats about retaliation he appears to lack the conviction of earlier rants, my opinion is he has bluffed and blustered believing that Russia and China would stay onside, thus watering down any proposed US sanctions. now that his two former allies have shifted their stance the writing looks on the wall.

I did think that and have stated on these pages previously that I believed Israel would be in a position to attack installations by years end, I see no reason to change my opinion.

DurdensView Tags: Israel, Iran, US. Sanctions

Iranian Trickery

Iran demanded important changes in a crucial international nuclear fuel deal yesterday, challenging the basis of the agreement struck with the US, France and Russia.  They hinted they wanted to export the fuel only in small batches while simultaneously importing the higher-grade fuel.

That would be a deal breaker because the UN wanted to remove temporarily three quarters of Iran’s nuclear fuel stockpile, to prevent it from acquiring material for a bomb.

The deal being haggled over would buy time. An agreement between Iran and the UN would defuse tensions, put off sanctions and avert the threatened Israeli strike on nuclear facilities.

A blind man can see what Iran is doing Just buying time until they have a weapon and then it will be to late, when will the West learn you cant appease tyrants, its time for action Now.

DurdensView Tags: Iran, UN

Putin Back in Charge

I suspect there was a deal made made between Ex Russian President Vladimir Putin and current President Dimitri Medvedev, its a kind of revolving door deal where Putin exits first to let Medvedev in then in 2012 they reverse the procedure so Putin can take power again, and under new changes being made to the Russian constitution Putin would be able to serve  two six year terms taking him through till 2024 as leader.

Even now with Medvedev in the top chair it is widely known that “prime minister “ Putin is the real power in Russia, But is this really a bad deal for the rest of the World, I don’t think so, ok Putin  has had and continues to have problems with former States Georgia and the Ukraine, but these are more like spats between an ex husband and wife admittedly most ex’s don’t go to war over their spats, but these largely are internal disputes that don’t involve anyone else.

I don’t think Putin has been that bad a leader in terms of World stability, the Russians have problems like we do with Terrorism so we are on side about that, Putin is also one of the few to have any sway with the Iranians and has so far stayed onside with the West regard Iran’s nuclear ambitions, after all with full Russian backing Iran would already have had dozens of bombs.

Putin has demonstrated his tough guy credentials many times,  which have also helped to keep the US in check, Bush and Putin were never really on the same page, but Obama has impressed the Russian Leader and has already improved relations, first by visiting Moscow and then taking of the table for the time being American plans for a defence shield in Europe, that would have gone almost up to the Russian borders.

There are also  plans between the two Superpowers for future talks aimed at further reducing Nuclear arsenals on both the American and Russian sides. I know that it is widely accepted that America is the only superpower left, but the big red bear has been building up and sharpening its claws for a while now, and is gradually gaining its earlier influence in World Politics.

The human rights issue is the only real  area where The Russians differ massively from us in the West, and the Russians do have a different way of dealing with problems , if  a journalist starts to write negatively about the leadership they are shot in the street, this has happened many times,  that is a form of censorship I’m sure our leaders at times wish they could employ here, on a serious note though The Alexander Litvinenko poisoning here in London in 2006 shows how far the Russians will go to preserve the status quo.

Before we in Britain start moaning about the stitch up in the transfer of power in Russia, we should ask  is the revolving door policy of swapping leaders that different with Blair stepping aside and handing over to Brown unchallenged. To me its no different.

DurdensView Tags: Putin, Medvedev, Obama, Bush, Blair, Brown. Israel, Nuclear

Obama is all talk

Western governments united to denounce Iran’s test-firing of a long-range ballistic missile yesterday, warning that it would only increase international determination to press for more sanctions on Tehran if it refused to negotiate over its nuclear programme.

I am getting a bit sick of keep hearing this, its warning warning warning, that’s all we read, it reminds me of the dance that the West had with Saddam before eventually having to take action.

Iran has made it clear by saying they will not under any circumstance stop their Nuclear programme, so the West and by the West I mean specifically America has to make a decision and act on it,  the longer this drags out the scarier it gets there will be a point when Iran will announce we have the bomb, after that they will be untouchable.

If Obama hasn’t the balls for military action then he should  take the shackles of Israel and let them deal with Iran, so far he has been all talk with no substance regards Iran,

I am amazed that Israel have been this restrained, but its getting to the point that with or without US blessing Israel will deal with this soon.

DurdensView Tags: Obama, Israel, Iran

Ahmadinejad On Notice

Iran warned Israel yesterday that it faces destruction if it attacks the Islamic republic, only hours after Tehran provocatively test-fired missiles capable of hitting targets across the Middle East.

If further proof were needed of the unsuitability of Ahmadinejad to lead Iran well here it is, now when he should be looking to find a way out of the situation with the West over his secret nuclear facility, he ties to divert attention by again threatening to destroy Israel.

He is playing a dangerous game whereas the US is always conscious of international opinion, Israel do not care about such niceties, this kind of rhetoric is playing into hard-line  Israeli Premier Binyamin Netanyahu’s hands, unless a diplomatic solution is found, and this is unlikely without a massive climb down by Iran, military action is inevitable.

Iran have promised massive and deadly retaliation for any attack, but I seem to recall another madman promising “the mother of all battles” and “to leave the desert soaked in infidel blood” if an attack occurred.

So Ahmadinejad should be aware that big bully bluster will not be enough to save him from the Israeli’s.

DurdensView Tags: Ahmadinejad, Isreal, Nuclear

Election Debate Conclusion

Having now seen the rest of last nights live election debate, it has served to reinforce my belief that David Cameron is the only real option come May 6th, Gordon Brown did not perform particularly badly last night but as well as he could perform you would still put the last 13 years down to Labour, and who wants 5 more years of the same.

It was particularly galling listening to him claiming that our armed forces were so well equipped and that Senior military commanders had told him it was the best they had ever had it, when all we the public seem to see in the media is soldiers and officers alike crying out for more equipment.

Clegg you could pick out of a line up as a liberal, his wishy washy ways are not suited to running a Country, for heavens sake in the worst period of the World’s history where Rogue nations are  trying to develop nuclear capabilities and by capability we all know it means weapons, Clegg wants us to give up our nuclear deterrent,,

I had to laugh at his proposal for criminals to stand in front of their victims and apologise, I’m sure rape victims are happy about that one,  incidentally I wonder how long a day he spends in front of the mirror practising his ridiculously theatrical hand movements.

I stand by my assertion that Cameron is the only viable choice at the moment, he talks a lot of sense, don’t be put of by his “toff” look, of the three candidates he is the closest to the man on the street.

DurdensView Tags: Election Debate, Brown, Cameron, Clegg

Israeli Pressure Pays Of

After months of veiled threats and training exercises aimed at attacking Iranian Nuclear sites the Israeli’s look to have got the message across to  the the hard line regime in Tehran, the message being we will take action by the end of the year unless you can prove we have nothing to fear.

Surprisingly United Nations inspectors have been granted access to Iran's heavy water facility at Arak, as well as the enrichment facility at Natanz — the site of Iran's primary centrifuge installation.

Since its clandestine enrichment efforts were revealed more than six years ago, Iran has steadily increased activities at its cavernous underground facility at Natanz, about 300 miles south of Tehran, shrugging off three sets of U.N. Security Council sanctions and rejecting talks meant to entice it to mothball the activity.

But after all their posturing The Iranians are trying  to defuse the situation by granting access and doing it at a time when the rest of the world is busy looking the other way with the election in Afghanistan dominating middle east news at the moment, and the deadly bombs in Iraq yesterday that claimed over a hundred lives and some 500 casualty’s.

Ahmadinejad has a number of problems at the moment since the disputed elections 10 weeks ago, the fraud allegations wont go away, he has sacked six members of his cabinet and is trying to replace them with family and cronies, inexperienced yes men, however parliament look like they will reject these nominees. He appears to be losing his hard man tag Like all bully’s when confronted he is beginning to crumble.

DurdensView Tags: Iran, Nuclear, Afghanistan, Ahmadinajad

Nuclear Tit for Tat

The U S is right to point out that their will be consequences if Iran were to launch an attack on Israel http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article6451892.ece If Iran really does want nuclear power for energy only why don't they shelve their plans for now its not likely they will forget the technology. For a country that sits on such huge oil reserves why the urgency. This is not a case of Americas flexing its military muscle but right and proper concern that the Iranian people do not let their president take them down a path from which they cant turn back. Its no coincidence that Hilary Clinton chose now to say what the Obama administration has been hinting at for months. With Iranians going to the polls now is a chance to return their country in to the international Bosom.

Hope in the Middle east

Meir Dagan the Director of mossad has hinted that Saudi Arabia would let Israel overfly the Kingdoms airspace if it were to attack Iranian Nuclear Facility’s. The fact that Mossad have leaked this means it’s a done deal, though outwardly Arab states would speak out against an Israeli raid, privately they would welcome it. Nobody in the region wants Iran to obtain a Nuclear weapon, and would like to see their ability to produce one downgraded, if not outright smashed. Looking at the Middle East and without wishing to tempt fate, I would say significant progress appears to be being made. Iraq though problematic appears to be stabilising, the threat of a civil war there has receded, and the number of attacks on civilians is down, though there has been a small spike recently due to US forces withdrawing from Towns and City’s and handing over responsibility to Iraqi forces. Syria are making overtures to Obama, and have invited him to Damascus for talks. In Afghanistan there is a massive surge of  US and allied forces and the Taliban appear to be on the run, In Helmund which had been a stronghold they are being pushed out, simultaneously Pakistani forces in a crude pincer movement are boxing them in from the other side. Sure there is still work to be done but for the first time in decades a light has appeared, lets pray that everyone concerned is brave enough  to continue to the end of the tunnel.

Iran the Fight is back on

I believed that the resistance in Iran had been pretty much snuffed out. but there does appear to still be some life there, yesterday an influential group of senior clerics in qom the birthplace and home town of revolution founder Ayatollah Khomeni openly defied the supreme leader, and called the election result illegitimate and void. This is unprecedented in the Islamic state, Defeated opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi talks of forming a new opposition group to fight the fraudulent election result. Its possible that if momentum is established in the fight to get the election result overturned, the madman Ahmadinejad could still be removed. With Israel starting to make noises about attacking nuclear installations in Iran again, now would seem a good time for Iran to have more moderate leaders.

Iranian Leadership Desperate

Iranian authorities have slowed internet connections to a crawl or choked them of completely before expected student protests today to deny the opposition vital means of communications.

In another tactic Journalists have been banned from leaving their offices.

It could be an explosive day as Iran’s Chief of police has promised to crush any dissent

This smacks of the desperation of a doomed regime, lets hope these protesters can keep the momentum going and maybe force a regime change themselves before the maniac in charge involves them in a war with the West.

Last weeks announcement that they would be constructing ten more nuclear sites has hardly endeared them to the rest of the world, least of all to Israel who are itching to destroy their existing sites.

Because no foreign media will be allowed to report on today’s events it may be a while before information leaks out, we are after all now used to watching news as it happens, but I’m sure by tonight mobile phone footage and eye witness accounts will be available.

This could be the beginning of the end of Ahmadinejad’s rule, lets hope so.

DurdensView Tags: Iranian, Protests, Ahmadinejad