Iran to close to call

Violence Could erupt in Iran after the challenger warned President Ahmadinejad not to rig the results of the general Election. The Republican guard who strongly back the president are poised to crush any dissent. Warning that the "result" must be respected. As I forecast last week this election is to close to call. Even though Ahmadinejad is well liked amongst the poor and ultra religious he does not have any backing from the younger better educated middle class Iranians. Women also favour the challenger Mir Hossein Mousavi who is both a reformist and a moderate. The West who would also like to see the current President toppled have been careful not to openly back his opponent as this could have a negative effect on Mousavi's campaign. The expected record turnout will favour the challenger as previously reformists have not voted in protest at the government. In a fair election I would expect Ahmedinejad to be trounced. However this is Iran where Fair does not always get a look in. Its unlikely this election will be settled decisively first time around and a run of between the top two candidates looks likely.